The beleaguered Prime Minister knows the answer better than anyone on the political scene in the land of the rising sun. As it turns out to be a binding referendum on Abe`s performance, one cannot dismiss the chance of the people`s negative verdict determining his political future.
Sunday`s election to Japan`s House of Councilors is going to be a real acid test for the barely one-year old policies of the coalition government headed by Abe. While the ruling coalition expresses a customary confidence in the people`s verdict, the results of surveys that captured the common man`s feelings on the nation`s first Prime Minister born after World War II, do not portray a gleaming picture.
Popularity at a low
Support for Abe`s government and the Liberal Democratic Party he leads, plummeted to a record low range a week earlier at 20-30 percent. A critical look into the eventful 10 months after 52 year old Abe became the youngest post-war Prime Minister of Japan last September will unveil the fall from grace of the energetic and reformist successor of the irrepressible Junichiro Koizumi.
With a dramatic improvement in Japan`s historically difficult relations with China and South Korea and centralizing decisions in the Prime Minister`s office to augment the pace of reform, Abe could successfully stamp the first impression as a pragmatist in international relations and internal administration after his triumph in the general elections in September 2006.
However, critics of Abe say a defeat may be justified because while focusing on building national assertiveness, he has overlooked voters` concerns about their economic future, and thus support for him has fallen. Abe`s fortunes have declined in spite of a healthy economy and no major disasters during his 10 months in office.
Ineffectual manager of a cabinet
The image of an ineffectual manager of a cabinet beset by all too familiar corruption scandals has done damage to Abe. Agriculture Minister Norihiko Akagi`s involvement in a political-financing scandal, the resignation of controversial Defence Minister Fumio Kyuma, and the suicide of scandal-tainted Farm Minister Toshikatsu Matsuoka have only helped to expose the eroding strength of character and integrity of Abe`s cabinet. If he does not resign, the Prime Minister may have to at least recast his entire cabinet irrespective of the outcome.
Slogan backfires
Abe`s slogan, “reform or reverse”, seems to have backfired on him, as there is a widespread perception that reforms are getting delayed and that some are, indeed, in reverse. If the electorate realizes that their quality of life has degraded, considering certain key elements that affect their day-to-day lives, and if it converts into negative votes, Abe will find it difficult to capture at least half of the 120 seats up for election. The lives of many rural residents have not yet benefited from the economic reforms, while the tax burden has increased and medical services have degraded. The increasing number of the unemployed and the welfare recipients below poverty line in no way reflects the image of a welfare state of Japan, the industrial giant.
Six recent media polls showed the coalition will lose control of the upper chamber. If there is a landslide loss, there is some risk that the Japanese Prime Minister may resign. In case of political instability in Japan next week, financial analysts forecast that the bank of Japan may not raise interest rates next month and carry traders could force the yen to weaken to 125 against the U.S. dollar. It is also indicated that Japanese investors may diversify their investment away from their home country.
A defeat will weaken reforms
UBS economist Takashi Omori points out the possibility of a weakened Abe getting disabled in sailing the Japanese economy smoothly. In the event of the coalition majority losing control of the upper house, Abe`s administration would find it hard to pass laws because the upper house can block most legislation. That would hold up deregulation efforts, free-trade agreements, and other policies necessary for Japan`s prosperity. There is also a possibility of Abe slowing his efforts to overhaul inefficient industries.
Able crisis manager
Having said so much on the negative, one cannot go without citing the Prime Minister`s ability for crisis management. He recently showed that he could handle crises decisively, first over the scandal of 50 million missing pension records and then in responding to the Kashiwazaki nuclear leak; leave alone his observation last March that there was no evidence to prove that the “comfort women” exploited by Japan`s wartime Imperial Army were coerced.
Improved foreign relations
It may not be strong enough to overcome the effects of Abe`s domestic troubles, but still there is something for him to be proud of in handling Japan`s foreign policy. While ten months may not be a long enough period to make a thorough assessment of a new Prime Minister`s foreign policy, it can still be seen as one with mixed results.
Maintaining its strong relationship with the U.S., Japan has also begun to build links with NATO and the European Union. Diplomacy with North Korea, unfortunately, has come to a standstill in his efforts to solve the abduction issue. There has been growing criticism within Japan that Abe`s policies regarding North Korea have effectively isolated the country from the U.S. and South Korea.
It must also be noted that Abe has also pushed for a more assertive foreign policy based on values. The forging of strong links with other democratic states from the Pacific to the English Channel was a significant step forward in making Japan a bigger player on the international scene, considering the relevance of developing stronger defense relations. Abe has proved that he has the potential to implement a strategy of Japan taking the role of a stakeholder in the region.
People`s Mandate - a lesson to learn from
Although Sunday`s elections are not to elect the Prime Minister (as the LDP Policy Research Council Chairman Shoichi Nakagawa defends his leader, sounding like an anticipatory bail), the outcome is definitely going to be a clear signal to the position where Abe, his government, and its policies stand in the hearts and minds of the Japanese people. Whatever the results, one thing is for sure: Abe and his party cannot move forward neglecting the review of the people`s mandate for the second time in less than a year.
The margin of defeat may become a decisive factor in Abe`s choice to resign. But since the upper house has only limited powers, even a modest loss of seats wouldn`t automatically mean his ouster. Most analysts think he would likely be able to carry on even after July 29. His right-hand man and chief cabinet secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki`s statement on Tuesday that Abe intends to stay on, regardless of the election result, is enough to put an end to the debate on the issue.
There are political analysts who believe there is a potential candidate to replace Abe in case of a setback - Foreign Minister Taro Aso. Like Abe, he favors deregulation and keeping tax rates under control, but has a distinct plus: Aso is a more experienced politician who might get business done more effectively.
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