FAIR VALUE

Good evening. The concept of fair value in any currency is largely that of CBers and economists and not much about trading ..Almost always currencies overshoot from the fair value areas some 20-30% in their medium-term trend and what makes all hard currencies range in reasonable areas overtime since we had this floating regime in 1971 must the ability of relevant CBs to control the currency ranges and their real economy's weakness or strength to support those ranges. ECB folks were not joking when they said Eur/usd was some 25% undervalued from the fair value when Eur/Usd was below parity levels two years ago. Same goes for BOJ when they were saying Yen was some 10-20% overvalued when it was trading around 100 some three years ago too. That is how these folks view the markets and try to guide the market. Of course, when US Treasury folks say "Dollar is still strong" when it is falling, they are begging the market to sell more Dollars.

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