forex trading

Monday, August 6, 2007

Dollar Falls On Weak U.S. Growth And Risk Aversion, Monday, August 06, 2007 3:08:06 AM

The US currency has been holding steady versus most of the major currencies through the Asian deals on Monday. The dollar started moving sideways after extending Friday`s losses during early Asian trading.

The dollar fell on Friday amid the release of a few key economic data from the U.S. The downward move confirms the down trend the greenback has traced since it reached multi-day highs against most other majors in the last week of July.

The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in July compared to the 4.5% expected by analysts. The non-farm payrolls increased 92,000 over the past month, but came in far less than the anticipated figure of 127,000.

Investors now turn toward the FOMC meting scheduled for tomorrow. The committee is not expected to alter the official interest rate from 5.25%, but the accompanying statement is likely to be scrutinized by the markets to glean clues towards any change in the Fed`s future policy stance.

Many expect the FOMC to shift its focus to sub-prime problems in the US housing markets from inflation, and hence, to issue dovish comments. There are also expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by the end of 2007. The PCE deflator had dropped to 1.9% in July from an upwardly revised 2.0%, according to the personal income and outlays report released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis last week.

The Bank of England and the European Central Bank left the key interest rates unchanged at 5.75% and 4.0% respectively on Friday, but the ECB signaled a rate hike in September. Firmer Euro-zone economy and narrower gap between ECB and FOMC rates are expected to push the US dollar lower in the near future.

Also, the unwinding of carry trades due to risk aversion by investors has lead to the strengthening of low-yielding currencies like the yen and the franc. The recent fall had pushed the dollar to a 27-month low versus the Swiss franc and a new multi-month low versus the Japanese unit.

Against the euro, the dollar extended its Friday`s losses during early Asian trading on Monday and hit as low as 1.3837 by about 6:00 pm ET Sunday. This set a 13-day low for the greenback compared to the 20-day high of 1.3608 hit on 30th July. The pair is now moving sideways between 1.3806 and 1.3817 in comparison with the all-time low of 1.3850 hit by the pair on 24th July.

The dollar saw weakness versus the Japanese yen during early Asian deals on Monday extending its last week losses. The pair hit a new multi-month low of 117.18 by about 5:55 pm ET Sunday. However, edging up from there, the greenback remained sideways versus the yen all through the Japanese deals on Monday.

The US dollar weakened heavily against the Swiss franc on Friday amid the US data releases. The pair declined further in early Asian deals on Monday and hit a 27-month low of 1.1816 by about 6:00 pm ET Sunday. Thereafter, the pair moved range-bound around 1.185, and the next likely long term level of support is seen around 1.148.

Friday`s force pushed the pound-dollar to 2.0458, a one-week low for the US currency. The pair had been on a downtrend after it hit a 20-day high of 2.0180 on 30th July. The greenback, however, edged up in early Asian deals on Monday but lost its momentum shortly. The pair has lately hit 2.0459, compared to the multi-year low of 2.065 hit on 24th July.

Wednesday, August 1, 2007

Singapore Dollar Advances Versus Other Majors, Wednesday, August 01, 2007 6:15:01 PM

The Singapore dollar saw strength against the majors on Wednesday in New York. The currency moved up in mid-day trading and was up for the day against the greenback and euro. It was near its overnight levels against the sterling.

The Singapore dollar was up slightly against the greenback on Wednesday in New York. The currency fell in early hours before leveling off. It edged higher for several hours from there and then added further gains in the later afternoon. It traded at 1.5174 at 6 p.m. ET.

The Singapore currency rallied in mid-day trading against the euro to move up for the day against the euro on Wednesday in New York. The Singapore dollar fell in overnight trading and remained lower through the morning. The currency began to rise at around 10 a.m. and continued to do so for about four hours. Trading was sideways from there and the pair traded at 2.0740 at 6:05 p.m. ET.

The Singapore dollar was unchanged against the sterling on Wednesday in New York. The currencies were range-bound until about 8:30 a.m. when the sterling rallied sharply. The Singapore solar erased those losses with a mid-day rally. Trading in the later afternoon was choppy, and the pair was at 3.0820 at 6:10 p.m., near the overnight mark.

Yen Weaker Against Major Counterparts, Wednesday, August 01, 2007 6:39:13 PM

The Japanese yen saw weakness against the other majors on Wednesday in New York. The yen moved away from a multi-month high against the euro, and also dropped against the sterling and greenback. Japanese currency investors considered data showing that new vehicle sales in the nation fell 9.7% year-over-year in July.

The yen slipped slightly against the pound after giving up earlier gains. The Japanese currency rose overnight and into the morning until about 2 a.m. It moved lower starting at around 6 a.m. and declined for about two hours before leveling off. The pair was flat for the rest of the rest of the morning and into the early afternoon, but the yen added further losses in the late afternoon and into the early evening. The currencies were at 241.91 at 6:35 p.m. ET. Traders mulled data showing that U.K. consumer confidence saw little change in July, adding a point to reach 95.

The yen dropped against the euro Thursday in New York after earlier touching a 3 Ѕ month high earlier in the morning. The Japanese currency rose to 160.46 at 4:45 a.m. ET, its highest mark since mid-April. It edged lower from there, however, for about five hours. The yen rallied in the mid-day, but the slipped again in the late afternoon and traded at 162.92, near its daily low, at 6:30 p.m. ET. . Traders considered data showing the Euro zone Purchasing Manager`s Index for the manufacturing sector declined to 54.9 in July from 55.6 in June.

The yen slipped against the dollar on Wednesday morning in New York after giving up earlier gains. The Japanese yen advanced during the overnight levels until about 6 a.m. ET when it began to decline. The pair stabilized at around 8 a.m. for the rest of the morning and into the afternoon. The yen began to decline again at around 3 p.m. and added sharper losses at around 6 p.m. ET. The pair traded at 119.09 at 6:30 p.m. ET. Greenback traders mulled over better-than-expected pending home sales data and weaker-than-expected ISM manufacturing and employment data.

Aussie Moves Up Against Other Majors, Wednesday, August 01, 2007 5:56:56 PM

The aussie saw strength against the other majors on Wednesday in New York, posting its biggest gains in the later afternoon. Traders mulled data showing Australia`s trade deficit widened to a seasonally adjusted A$1.751 billion in June from a revised deficit of A$970 million in the prior month. The result topped the expected deficit of A$1.2 billion for June. Additional news stated that the Reserve Bank of Australia`s Commodity Price Index slipped 0.1% in SDR terms in July, after a revised decline of 0.9% in June.

The Australian dollar surged above a resistance level and moved to a new daily high against the greenback during late-afternoon trading on Wednesday in New York. Trading was uncertain through the morning and into the morning until about 3 p.m. ET. The aussie began to rise from there and a few hours later, it broke above resistance that had persisted since Tuesday afternoon. The pair is traded at 0.8561 at 5:40 p.m. ET.

The aussie moved up against the euro in afternoon trading on Wednesday in New York. The Australian dollar fell in the overnight hours, getting as low as 1.6163 at 2 a.m. ET. The aussie trended higher for several hours before leveling off. It added further gains with a rally that started at around 3 p.m. ET. The pair was at 1.5967 at 5:40 p.m. ET.

The aussie gained in the sterling on Wednesday in New York, breaking out of a range in the later afternoon. The currencies were range-bound until the aussie surged with a rally that started at around 3 p.m. ET and continued for the rest of the afternoon. The pair traded at 2.3728 at 5:50 p.m. ET.

New Zealand Dollar Moves Higher Against Majors, Wednesday, August 01, 2007 5:34:16 PM

The kiwi saw strength against the other majors in late-afternoon trading on Wednesday in New York. The currency moved away from a near-term low against the sterling and also gained on the dollar and euro. . The currency moved with little news from the area.

The New Zealand dollar has surged above a resistance level against the greenback in late-afternoon trading in New York. The pair was uncertain through the morning and early afternoon. The kiwi began to rise at around 3:15 p.m. ET and continued to do so for the next two hours. It is currently at 0.7662 against its U.S. counterpart.

The kiwi saw strength in the later afternoon against the euro and was up for the day on Wednesday in New York. The New Zealand currency fell in early trading, but bounced back later in the morning to recoup those losses. It gained again starting at around 3 a.m. ET and continued to climb for a few hours.

The kiwi moved up on the pound in afternoon trading on Wednesday in New York. The New Zealand currency was range-bound with the sterling until breaking ahead of resistance at around 4:30 p.m. ET. The rally took the aussie away from a two-month low.

Jobless Claims And Factory Orders Scheduled For Release Thursday - Economic Preview, Wednesday, August 01, 2007 4:45:06 PM

After yet another day of mixed economic reports, investors are more confused than ever. Their uncertainty is clearly reflected in the market, which has become increasingly volatile. Though most attention is still focused on Friday`s employment data, a handful of economic reports scheduled for release Thursday should have capture investors interest.

First, at 8:30 am ET jobless claims for the week will be made public. Unemployment claims are compiled weekly and monitor the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. For investors, jobless claims are a simple way to show the strength of the job market. Fewer claims mean a stronger job market, and vice-versa.

Jobless claims fell by 2,000 for the week of July 21 to 301,000. For the week of July 28th analysts predict a slight increase in claims, up to 310,000.

At 10:00 am ET data on Factory Orders for June will be released. They represent the dollar level of new orders for both durable and nondurable goods. Investors pay close attention to this report, as it is a good indicator of the condition of the manufacturing sector. For June, economists predict a 1 percent increase in orders. Orders fell a one half of a percent in May, led by a 2.8 percent drop in durable goods orders. Nondurables, however, performed well posting a 1.6 percent gain. Durable goods orders recently posted gains for June, leading analysts to expect an increase in factory orders.

Dollar Largely Uncertain Against Major Counterpart, Wednesday, August 01, 2007 4:11:41 PM

The dollar was generally uncertain against its major counterparts on Wednesday morning in New York. The greenback was little changed amid choppy trading against the sterling and euro. The buck was up on the yen. Greenback traders mulled over a slew of economic data released in the morning in the U.S. Pending home sales data for June rose by 5%, the ISM manufacturing index came in lower-than-expected at 53.8 and the ADP employment report showed weaker-than-expected American job growth in July.

The U.S. dollar was little changed against the euro on Wednesday in New York. After an early rise, the greenback began to move lower at around 5 a.m. ET. It dropped sharply a few hours following the release of employment data and edged even lower in the later morning. The greenback gained some strength in the afternoon and moved to 1.3670 at 4 p.m. ET. Overall, trading has been uncertain over the last few days. Traders considered data showing the Euro zone Purchasing Manager`s Index for the manufacturing sector declined to 54.9 in July from 55.6 in June.

The dollar was uncertain against the sterling on Wednesday in New York. The greenback fell sharply following the release of employment data in the mid-morning. The dollar edged higher for the rest of the morning and into the afternoon,, but dropped again at around 3:45 p.m. The pair traded 2.0301 at 4 p.m. Traders mulled data showing that U.K. consumer confidence saw little change in July, adding a point to reach 95.

The dollar saw afternoon strength against the yen on Wednesday and moved to a daily high. The greenback fell during the overnight levels until about 6 a.m. ET when it began to climb for about four hours. It added further gains with a rally that started at around 3 p.m. ET. The pair was at 118.95 at 4:05 p.m. ET. Japanese currency investors considered data showing that new vehicle sales in the nation fell 9.7% year-over-year in July.

Monday, August 6, 2007

Wednesday, August 1, 2007

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